Each expansion of knowledge in science and mathematics triggers a large number of discrete new technologies. The relentless drive of a portion of humanity to derive competitive advantage from these discrete technologies results in multiple combinations of these technologies (called products/services) aiming to meet the needs and wants of humans. Since humans are limited and their basic needs are limited, till now the belief has been that triggering higher needs and fickle wants will drive the demand for new products/services. But the relationship between the supply and demand of products/services has changed radically. Humanity is now able to meet most of the demand with far too little technology than is available. Capitalism has reached an singularity.
Given that some technologies are privately owned and some are in the public domain, humanity as a whole does not have adequate control over many individual technologies, much less over their combinations. The relationship of humanity to technology is similar to that between humanity and nature itself. Day-to-day experience of control over nature tends to generate the belief that man is in control over nature, but random natural events and their combinations bring humanity to its knees periodically. Similarly the day-to-day experience with technology based products/services tends to create and sustain the belief that technology is safe and humanity is in control of technology. But random unanticipated events associated with products/services deployed by humans and their combinations can generate unanticipated disasters. Combined with natural phenomena, this can result in even more severe disasters. Humanity is no longer in control of the technology tiger it rides. As reported by MIT Technology Review July/August 2013 Vol. 116 No. 4 ("How Technology is Destroying Jobs"), the ability of ever-cheaper technology to eliminate a large number of jobs in law, financial services , education and medicine with combinations of hardware and software is here and now. It is no longer far away. The mega disaster that will inevitably happen due to this is nearby.
No blue/white collar job is safe. The greed of few to build empires is driving choices at a humanity level which will eliminate the jobs of a large segment of humanity involving producing products/services while continuing to try and sell us more and more products/services at increasing prices. This greed will make the said segment poorer and poorer as its ability to pay for products/services dwindles with the vanishing jobs. The inability of our social sciences to reliably predict the kind of state and society we are headed towards shows our lop-sided priorities and is ominous, since it could be intentional.
In my view, we are headed for a unequal police state controlled by the genetically in-bred Ph.D. folk, where the rights of all citizens may not be equal and the concept of equal human rights may come under threat. In my view, caste-like social systems will result.
There was a typo in understanding and communicating Gods message. The geek shall inherit the earth.
Take good care of yourselves and your loved ones particularly children.
Regards
Pratap Tambay
27th July 2013
Given that some technologies are privately owned and some are in the public domain, humanity as a whole does not have adequate control over many individual technologies, much less over their combinations. The relationship of humanity to technology is similar to that between humanity and nature itself. Day-to-day experience of control over nature tends to generate the belief that man is in control over nature, but random natural events and their combinations bring humanity to its knees periodically. Similarly the day-to-day experience with technology based products/services tends to create and sustain the belief that technology is safe and humanity is in control of technology. But random unanticipated events associated with products/services deployed by humans and their combinations can generate unanticipated disasters. Combined with natural phenomena, this can result in even more severe disasters. Humanity is no longer in control of the technology tiger it rides. As reported by MIT Technology Review July/August 2013 Vol. 116 No. 4 ("How Technology is Destroying Jobs"), the ability of ever-cheaper technology to eliminate a large number of jobs in law, financial services , education and medicine with combinations of hardware and software is here and now. It is no longer far away. The mega disaster that will inevitably happen due to this is nearby.
No blue/white collar job is safe. The greed of few to build empires is driving choices at a humanity level which will eliminate the jobs of a large segment of humanity involving producing products/services while continuing to try and sell us more and more products/services at increasing prices. This greed will make the said segment poorer and poorer as its ability to pay for products/services dwindles with the vanishing jobs. The inability of our social sciences to reliably predict the kind of state and society we are headed towards shows our lop-sided priorities and is ominous, since it could be intentional.
In my view, we are headed for a unequal police state controlled by the genetically in-bred Ph.D. folk, where the rights of all citizens may not be equal and the concept of equal human rights may come under threat. In my view, caste-like social systems will result.
There was a typo in understanding and communicating Gods message. The geek shall inherit the earth.
Take good care of yourselves and your loved ones particularly children.
Regards
Pratap Tambay
27th July 2013
2 comments:
Good points..
This subject has been debated often in the recent few years, both on the point related to Capitalism being lopsided and irreverant to the larger social, ecological and human impact. And the point of rampaging technology eliminating jobs and incomes.
I think that while crystal gazing is difficult, it is likely that a theocratic/police state society scenario (however evident now) may be averted yet.
Consider this,
- Political/governmental pressure will pull to the opposite, will lead to a new breed of political class that will oppose the current self supporting model (recollect the 1% vs 99% movement of 2011 and 2012?). It has happened in the past in history and you can see that for example in recent America polls, Democratic tilt continues versus Republican pro business, balance the budget deficit message.
- Financial changes due to lower growth, deflation and lower incomes in the interim will cause a rebalancing with more jobs at the lower end shifting to the emerging world and yet some jobs coming back to the first world (consider the recent return in manufacturing), supported also by govt. incentives, new market dynamics (investment of the profits by corporates) and creation of new products/services that will be required to enable fresh consumption.
- A whole range of new jobs will also emerge in the western world in the future. These will require analytical, more right brain soft skills, rather than just lower end skills or high end technology/accounting/legal/medicalskills. This may take more time but is possible.
- Deep Societal change could create a whole range of human expectations, new individual/public needs, opportunities driven by slower consumption and a shift away from consumerism as we know it today.
Example - high investment into infrastructure projects for public transport as humans want to move away from their automobiles, expensive current modes of unsustainable transport etc.
Or individual need for self actualization and happiness may lead to a different need - as people prefer slower less technical lives.
Ofcourse, humanity could easily go towards the direction you worry about.
Manish
Manish, The natural desire of humans to put their own selfish interest ahead of others and the world at large was posited by Adam Smith as a structuring force. This force goes awry when everyone in India buys a car out-stripping supply of public goods like roads, triggering negative outcomes at a social and environmental level. The natural desire to procreate generate negative social outcomes due to excessive population growth. Capitalism as currently posited has indeed reached a singularity. I think that the negative outcome is the more likely outcome rather than the less negative outcome you suggest.
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